What we learned from the first two rounds of March Madness
- Jacob Seliga
- Mar 24
- 6 min read
By Jacob Seliga
Lead Writer
The first four days of the NCAA Tournament have wrapped up. With that comes big storylines that have been waiting to be answered all year.
There were iconic moments such as a buzzer beater by Maryland’s Derik Queen to send the Terrapins to the Sweet 16, along with a near historic comeback by Gonzaga against Houston.
National Player of the Year candidates Walter Clayton Jr. of Florida, Johni Broome of Auburn and Cooper Flagg of Duke showcased their skills and why they’re the favorites for the award.
There were coaches hired for other jobs while competing. Will Wade, who coached McNeese to a victory over Clemson, did so after accepting the job at North Carolina State. And Sean Miller, who negotiated his contract with Texas while he was preparing to face Illinois, now takes over for Rodney Terry, the same coach he and Xavier defeated in the First Four.
The madness was alive and well this weekend. But what did we learn?
The chalk is chalking
Outside of the South Region that saw a shorthanded No. 3 seed Iowa State team run into a buzzsaw against No. 6 seed Ole Miss, and No. 4 seed Texas A&M fall to the 5 seed Michigan, every other region saw at least three of its 1-4 seeds advance to the Sweet 16. This includes the Midwest Region with all four top seeds advancing.
The average margin of victory in the Round of 64 this year was 16.7 points, the highest margin ever in that round. Out of the 16 first-round games with the top four seeds, nine of the wins were 25-plus point blowouts, the most ever.
Since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this year was only the sixth time that the 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds all went undefeated in the first round.
It was also only the second time since the First Four games were added in 2011 that not a single team that won a play-in game in Dayton went on to win a game in the official bracket of 64.
With there being so much chalk, we saw an overwhelming majority of major conference teams dominate the first weekend of the tournament.
This year, only four conferences are represented in the Sweet 16 – the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. The previous record for fewest conferences represented in the Sweet 16 was seven.
It was midnight for Cinderella before the tournament started
To most casual fans and people who only care about college basketball during the time that March Madness takes place, the thrill of watching a bracket go up in flames as a heavily favored favorite loses to an upstart underdog cannot be replicated.
For most people, that thrill was met with disappointment and confusion.
For the first time in eight years, not a single team that was a 13-seed or lower won a game in the tournament. And although some trends such as an 11-seed beating a 6-seed continued for the 20th year in a row, there wasn’t a true mid-major team that captivated the country for the few days they danced.
Outside of a small handful of first-round seeding upsets, there were truly only two real upsets: No. 12 seed in the Midwest region McNeese defeating No. 5 Clemson and No. 11 Drake knocking off No. 6 Missouri.
No. 12 Colorado State did beat No. 5 Memphis in the first round, but the Rams were the betting favorite and closed as a 1.5-point favorite.
The lowest seed remaining and the only team left to be a Cinderella is the No.10 seed Arkansas, which went 8-10 in the SEC. Hard to be Cinderella when you’re a member of a conference that received 14 bids to the tournament.
Speaking of …
The SEC is King
The best conference in America all season walked into the tournament and showed why it is the kingpin of the 2024-25 season.
The SEC broke the record for most teams to advance to the Sweet 16 with seven (Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Arkansas). The old record was six by the ACC in 2016, which saw North Carolina get to the National Championship that season.
Now, when you receive close to 21% of the overall bids to the tournament as a conference, it’s going to be easier to stack bids to the second weekend onward.
But as history has shown, that isn’t always the case.
Thanks to NCAA Director of Media Coordination and Statistics David Worlock, we can see that just because you get many bids, doesn’t mean your conference wins when it matters.
“The Big East had 11 teams make it in 2011. Two made the Sweet 16. Big Ten got nine in 2022. Two made the Sweet 16. Big Ten got nine in 2021. One made the Sweet 16. ACC got nine in 2018. Four made the Sweet 16. ACC got nine in 2017. One made the Sweet 16,” Warlock said.
No matter what, the conference is guaranteed at least one team in the Elite 8 due to Kentucky and Tennessee matching up in the Sweet 16. But it comes as no surprise as it appears more and more likely the conference will possibly have multiple teams reach the Final Four.
Auburn looks like the clear top team in the South Region and will be playing de-facto home games in Atlanta for both the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Tigers may face off against Ole Miss for a spot to get to San Antonio.
Alabama has hit its stride offensively as Grant Nelson has returned healthy and the Crimson Tide escaped the first weekend battle-tested and ready to face off against BYU in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky and Tennessee rolled through the first weekend with ease, as both teams held true to their standards. The Wildcats are an explosive and strong offensive unit, and the Volunteers are suffocating on defense.
Arkansas looks like a completely different team in March as the Razorbacks knocked off Kansas then upset the No. 2 seed in their region, St John’s on Saturday. The Razorbacks did it by dominating inside on the glass and disrupting shots, and they have the tools to get past Texas Tech in the next round.
Florida looked as sharp as any No. 1 seed in the first round but had to survive a test from the defending back-to-back national champion UConn. The Huskies had the Gators on the ropes with two minutes to go in the Round of 32. With a reset focus and an eye on the goal, Florida looks ready to face off against Maryland for a spot in the Elite 8.
A new national champion for the first time since 2022
For the first time in three years, there will be a coach other than Dan Hurley being handed the national championship trophy at center court.
The UConn Huskies, who entered the year with hopes of trying for a three-peat, didn’t quite ever kick it into gear and were bounced out of the tournament by Florida in the Round of 32.
That now leads the college basketball world into the question of, “Who’s going to win it all?”
The overwhelming favorite by most is Jon Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils, who rolled through the first two rounds easier than any other team in the dance behind a lineup that looks far and away the best.
Kelvin Sampson and Houston had to hold on to knock off Gonzaga in the Round of 32 but is the other non-SEC team that many think has a strong chance to hoist the trophy in San Antonio on April 7.
Bonus: Basketballs overinflated?
The balls are overinflated, and that’s a legitimate problem.
Ask any person who has shot a basketball fresh out of the box that’s pumped up, or even the high school players who play in their state tournaments and must use a new basketball, it’s as if you’re shooting a bouncy ball that looks like a basketball.
Allow me to introduce to the court exhibit A:
VJ Edgecombe is one of the best dunkers in the sport. But in no world is a properly inflated ball ending up at the opposing 3-point line regardless of how forceful the miss is.
What’s more alarming is the data to back it up: The first two days of the NCAA tournament saw the tenth worst two-day 3-point shooting percentage in the history of the sport.
In the first round, teams shot a combined 30.9% from deep, an abysmally low number.
In Providence, Arkansas and St John’s met in the Round of 32 and combined to shoot 4-of-41 from deep with multiple shots that rimmed out or flat out rolled out of the cylinder.
This overinflation didn’t help smaller school and low/mid-major teams that rely upon 3-point shooting to bolster its upset potential in the first round.
Nine out of the 20 12-plus seeds were top 100 3-point shooting teams this year by percentage, all of whom shot at least 35% from deep on the year. Only three of those nine shot 30% or better from deep in their first-round game.
Layups rimming out, basketballs that sound like boulders clanking off the rim, great ball handlers losing their dribble and the ball – it’s all correlated and if not fixed prior to Thursday and Friday, could ruin the quality of the Sweet 16 games and onward.
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