By Jacob Seliga
Lead Writer
Thursday night, the eyes of the college football world will descend upon Miami as Notre Dame and Penn State meet in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl.
The 2024-25 season has been a whirlwind for both programs, as both sides have shedded the labels that have been attached to their name for years.
On Jan. 2, Notre Dame -- for the first time in three decades -- won a New Year’s Six bowl game, as it defeated SEC champion Georgia in New Orleans at the Sugar Bowl.
After making the Big 10 championship for the second time under James Franklin -- albeit in a losing effort -- Penn State is playing in a bowl game compatible to the program’s expectations.
Two programs that many casual fans and pundits alike have considered “overrated” and “underachievers” meet for the opportunity to play for a national championship in Atlanta next Monday night.
Tale of the Tape
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2), 5:30 PM, ESPN
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) (Loss to Northern Illinois)
Key Stats:
Rushing Offense: 217.6 yards per game, No. 12 nationally
Passing Offense: 189.1 yards per game, No. 105 nationally
Scoring Defense: 13.6 points allowed per game, No. 2 nationally
Total Yardage: 295.4 yards allowed per game, No. 6 nationally
Key Players:
Jeremiyah Love (RB): 1,076 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions, 226 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Riley Leonard (QB): 2,283 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 831 rushing yards, 15 rushing touchdowns
Xavier Watts (S): 66 total tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 6 interceptions, 9 pass breakups
Notre Dame keys to victory:
1. Have to control the line of scrimmage
2. Have to be able to rush on Abdul Carter’s side
3. Have to be comfortable moving the ball in the receiving game
Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) (Losses to No. 8 Ohio State, No. 1 Oregon)
Key Stats:
Rushing Offense: 202.2 yards per game, No. 16 nationally
Passing Offense: 234.1 yards per game, No. 53 nationally
Scoring Defense: 15.8 points allowed per game, No. 5 nationally
Total Yardage: 289.2 yards allowed per game, No. 5 nationally
Key Players:
Abdul Carter (Edge): 63 tackles, 11 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 22 tackles for loss
Tyler Warren (TE): 98 receptions, 1,158 receiving yards, 8 receiving touchdowns, 197 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
Kaytron Allen (RB): 1,026 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 17 receptions, 126 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Penn State keys to Victory:
1. Have to be able to be balanced offensively
2. Be willing to commit to the passing game on first and second down
3. Keep Drew Allar upright
Prediction: Notre Dame 24 Penn State 20
It is fitting that these two teams face off against one another for a chance to go compete for a national championship.
As mentioned above, they’ve been connected with the labels that have been attached to their names.
But more importantly, they’re extremely similar in how they’re built on both sides of the ball and both have a head coach ready to go to war for everybody in the program.
This game boils down to the health of two superstars, one on each side.
Abdul Carter left in the first quarter of the Nittany Lions Fiesta Bowl victory with a shoulder injury, and Jeremiyah Love left Notre Dame’s Sugar Bowl victory with a knee injury.
Both Marcus Freeman and James Franklin have said that the players are game time decisions, but the question becomes who will be more effective and who is less valuable not at 100 percent?
Carter’s presence is naturally bigger, as his impact on the game both for Penn State’s pass rush and run-stopping abilities have drawn comparisons to former letterman Micah Parsons.
Love is a game changer who will be a Heisman favorite in 2025 with his speed as one of the fastest backs in college football, and his pass catching ability has been helpful for quarterback Riley Leonard getting the ball out quickly.
The big question for both teams in this matchup is who can play from behind and not panic?
Both teams are in the top four nationally for time played with a lead this season and neither has truly been thrown into a position outside of one game for each that they’ve been tasked with falling behind and adjusting to what the game gives.
Luckily for both teams, both Leonard and Allar have experience outside of this season to lean on when it comes to playing from behind and how to adjust.
The key to this game is who to trust more between Allar and Leonard. And truthfully, like most margins in this game, it is razor thin.
But in this matchup, Leonard is the difference maker. His ability to impact the game whether it be on the ground with his legs or through the air fits Notre Dame perfectly.
Penn State is like a rattlesnake waiting for you to come near it before it bites you and goes away, leaving you unable to attack.
Notre Dame is like a constrictor, crushing the life out of you for four quarters as you try to stay in the game. But the speedy and physical defense controls the game as their rushing attack bleeds the clock and pounds you into submission.
In a hard fought and close game, Notre Dame’s style is the difference as the Irish win with a late score and go to the national championship.
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