By Jacob Seliga
Lead Writer
Last weekend, with its back against the wall and without star running back Cam Skattebo, Arizona State snuck by with a 35-31 victory over UCF. Now, the Sun Devils will head to Manhattan, Kansas to face No. 16 Kansas State in the biggest November game the Sun Devils have had in the last decade.
The biggest thing that stands out right away this week will be the return of Skattebo to the Sun Devils backfield. Earlier this week in front of the media, Sun Devil head coach Kenny Dillingham announced his return barring any unforeseen setbacks.
Skattebo is the biggest “X-Factor” in the country. In eight games, he ranks in the top 10 nationally for both total rushing yards and rushing yards per game and is also No. 2 in all-purpose yards.
His availability is crucial if the Sun Devils want to pull the upset, as Kansas State ranks in the top 15 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and is No. 21 in yards allowed per rush.
Kansas State offense
For all the praise that quarterback Avery Johnson has rightfully gotten this season, in both of the Wildcats losses so far, it has been their rushing attack that has been the difference.
Prior to its bye week, Kansas State dropped a 24-19 game on the road against Houston. In that contest, lead running back DJ Giddens rushed for only 50 yards on 17 carries and couldn’t establish a rhythm against the downhill play of the Cougars defense.
Back in September, during the Wildcats 38-9 loss to BYU, Giddens did rush for 93 yards, however he did it inefficiently on 19 carries.
In both Wildcat losses, his yards per carry dropped to 3.9. This bodes well for Arizona State as the Sun Devils have been one of the better defenses in the conference at stopping the run.
Currently, Arizona State sits at No. 3 in the Big 12 and No. 28 nationally in rushing yards allowed per contest.
Through the air, Johnson and the Wildcats offense struggled initially to start the season through the air, ranking at the bottom of the conference in passing yards per game.
Prior to the Houston loss, Johnson had found new life as he posted a career high in passing yards and touchdowns per game during the month of October.
His beneficiary all season has been deep threat receiver Jayce Brown. He currently leads the Wildcats in receiving yards and catches and has been a thorn in the side of opposing secondaries, hauling in six catches of 40+ yards this season.
Johnson’s other main target is Keagan Johnson, who counters Brown’s big play ability with his ability to catch balls underneath the safeties and gain yards after the catch to extend both plays and drives. Currently, Johnson sits at 27 catches and 303 receiving yards.
Kansas State defense
For all the success the Wildcats have had offensively in recent games, the defense has started to show massive cracks. After subpar showings against both Kansas and Houston, the unit looks to get on track against the Sun Devils.
The biggest flaw during the Wildcats recent struggles has been their inability to prevent the big play. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, both the Jayhawks and Cougars exposed weaknesses in the Wildcats defense.
For both teams, their inside zone blocking scheme really gave Kansas State trouble as they averaged 5.8 yards per carry on that play. Both teams also used the inside run game to pull both safeties of the Wildcats down and set up passes in between the hashes over the top for substantial yardage.
If the Wildcats are able to fix up their struggles in the run game and contain Skattebo, Sam Leavitt will be forced to pass the ball more. But as his connection with Jordyn Tyson improves every week, Kansas State’s weakness in the secondary can be exposed.
The Wildcats are currently No. 93 nationally in passing yards allowed per game, No. 85 in passing yards allowed per play and No. 103 in completion percentage allowed.
If Leavitt is able to stay up against a solid pass rush from Kansas State, he will have the ability to complete passes and extend drives just as he’s done since returning from injury following the Sun Devils bye week.
Prediction: Arizona State 31 Kansas State 28
No road game for Arizona State in a decade has loomed larger than this matchup on Saturday night. And even with all the high expectations surrounding this matchup on both sides, all of the pressure falls on Kansas State. The Wildcats, since the preseason, have been predicted to be in the position of the team to beat.
Arizona State isn't supposed to be in this position right now. And yet, that plays into the Sun Devils favor.
All season, going back to the Utah and Kansas matchups back in early October to the Oklahoma State matchup just a few short weeks ago, the Sun Devils have gone up against teams who have their backs against the wall and have everything to lose and have rolled in those three matchups.
Contrary to those who may not have seen Arizona State football this year, the Sun Devils know they’re playing with house money but have a chip on their shoulder with something to prove.
Skattebo is the best player on the field in this matchup and based off the past month, Sam Leavitt is the best quarterback on the field.
With momentum on their side, the Sun Devils rally with a late score from Leavitt to Tyson to quiet the Manhattan crowd and escape with a 31-28 victory to improve to 8-2, keeping their Big 12 Championship hopes alive heading into senior day.
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